Regional Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on Improved MD Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2012.04.22

Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science) ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 824-827.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2012.04.22

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Regional Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on Improved MD Model

An Wen-juan¹，Chen Feng²

1.China Merchants Chongqing Communications of Research ＆ Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 400067,China; 2.School of Traffic ＆ Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China

Received:2011-11-16 Revised:2012-03-27 Online:2012-08-15 Published:2015-03-12

基于改进 MD 模型的区域交通方式划分预测方法

安文娟¹，陈峰²

1. 招商局重庆交通科研设计院有限公司，重庆 400067; 2. 北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044

作者简介:安文娟( 1987—) ，女，湖北黄冈人，助理工程师，硕士，主要从事交通运输规划与管理研究。E-mail：anwenjuan0617@163.com.

Abstract

Abstract: With analysis of the basic principles of the MD model and consideration of factors like travel time，cost，safety ， convenience，comfort on travel mode choice，this paper improved quantitative method of travel to sacrifice and joined the se- curity，comfort and convenience of quantitative indicators to quantitative methods． Then MD regional traffic mode split model based on improved forecasting methods was established，and a prediction model in the forecasting process and key variables algorithm was given． Thereafter the validity and practicability of the proposed method was demonstrated by the examples of traffic mode split of Shanghai-Nanjing corridor

Key words: traffic modal split, split rate forecast, MD( modal demand) model

摘要： 分析了MD模型的基本原理;综合考虑出行时间、费用、安全、方便和舒适等5个因素对出行方式选择的影响，完善了出行牺牲量的量化方法，加入了安全性、舒适性、方便性的量化指标及其量化方法;建立了基于改进的MD模型的区域交通方式分担率预测方法，并提出了预测流程及预测模型中关键变量的求解算法;以沪宁通道内客运方式分担率的预测为实例，对比分析了改进前后MD模型及Logit模型的预测结果。验证了改进后MD模型能较好地模拟区域交通方式选择过程，预测有效可行

关键词: 区域交通规划, 交通方式划分, MD模型

CLC Number:

U491

An Wen-juan,Chen Feng. Regional Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on Improved MD Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2012, 31(4): 824-827.

安文娟,陈峰. 基于改进 MD 模型的区域交通方式划分预测方法[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2012, 31(4): 824-827.

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Regional Traffic Modal Splitting Method Based on Improved MD Model

基于改进 MD 模型的区域交通方式划分预测方法

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