Abstract: The effective passenger flow organization is the key to ensure the successful holding of the large-scale events. Based on the passenger flow characteristics and stated preference survey of the large-scale winter events, the route choice model for spectators and the dynamic evolution model of passenger flow were established. The dynamic variation law of passenger flow distribution and queuing time distribution at various facility nodes of large-scale events was analyzed. The research results show that increasing facilities such as heating rooms, souvenir shops and scenic spots will enhance the viewing experience of spectators in the large-scale winter events in the outer suburbs. Spectators acceptable psychological threshold of the queuing time for security check/ticket check or waiting time for public transport and the walking time to the venue is 20 minutes for the large-scale winter events. Moreover, spectators are more likely to choose the route with shorter walking time and more service facilities. Adopting route diversion and providing real-time route information can make the passenger flow distribution on the upstream and downstream nodes of the diversion path more balanced and smoother, which effectively reduces the passenger flow gathering and queuing phenomenon.

Key words: traffic engineering; large-scale winter events in outer suburbs; passenger flow dynamic evolution; route diversion; real-time information; passenger flow distribution

摘要： 有效的客流组织是保证大型活动成功举办的关键，通过大型冬季活动的客流特征及意向调查，建立了观众路径选择模型和客流动态演进模型，分析了大型活动各设施节点的客流分布和客流排队时间分布动态变化规律。结果表明：增加取暖房、纪念品店、景观点等设施将提升观众在远郊大型冬季活动中的观赛体验。大型冬季活动的观众可接受的安检/检票、等公交的排队时间及步行到场馆的时间心理阈值为20 min，且观众更愿意选择步行时间短和服务设施数量多的路径；采用路径分流并提供路径实时信息，会使得分流路径上、下游节点的客流分布更为均衡平缓，有效减少客流聚集和长时间排队等待现象。

关键词: 交通工程；远郊大型冬季活动；客流动态演进；路径分流；实时信息；客流分布